Counties within the United States vary substantially along a number of demographic and socioeconomic axes. These factors explain much of the variation observed throughout the US with respect to election and polling trends. This post attempts to untangle some of this complexity to give insight into the factors that influence voter behavior and other broader national trends.
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On the Influence of Recessions on the S&P 500 Index
The following plots explore the influence of two economic factors during recessions on the S&P 500 index: unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP). A linear model is constructed to predict the low of the S&P 500 index during a given recession using two transformed variables derived from the maximum unemployment and GDP differentials for that recession.
Visualizing International Trade of Food Products
With the rise of globalization, countries increasingly trade food products internationally. Acting in their own economic interests, countries buy and sell food where profitable, much like any other product. Import and export records provide a fascinating window into this complex world of international food trade.
On the Analysis and Prediction of Recessions in the USA
This chapter explores recessions in the United States of America. Datasets are collected from a variety of locations including the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and from the website of Yale professor and Nobel laureate Dr. Robert J. Shiller. A classifier model is constructed which predicts recessions and this model is analyzed for useful insights.
Real S&P Composite Moving Average
Recently, I have been experimenting with windowing functions for time series data. While trying out my code, I came up with a nice and (somewhat) thought-provoking plot.
nicholastsmith 