The following plots explore the influence of two economic factors during recessions on the S&P 500 index: unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP). A linear model is constructed to predict the low of the S&P 500 index during a given recession using two transformed variables derived from the maximum unemployment and GDP differentials for that recession.
With the rise of globalization, countries increasingly trade food products internationally. Acting in their own economic interests, countries buy and sell food where profitable, much like any other product. Import and export records provide a fascinating window into this complex world of international food trade.
This chapter explores recessions in the United States of America. Datasets are collected from a variety of locations including the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and from the website of Yale professor and Nobel laureate Dr. Robert J. Shiller. A classifier model is constructed which predicts recessions and this model is analyzed for useful insights.
Recently, I have been experimenting with windowing functions for time series data. While trying out my code, I came up with a nice and (somewhat) thought-provoking plot.